We think there is a stifling nature of the electoral system in terms of how it's preventing diversity. There's lots of different elements to this. One of them is the number of uncontested seats that we have. There were 74 uncontested seats in Wales in 2022, so that's 6 per cent of the total elected councillors; 97 per cent of these were in single-member wards. So, there's a real, heavy bias towards single-member wards there. There were no uncontested seats, in contrast, in wards with three members or higher. So, if you're looking at bigger wards, you're much, much less likely to have uncontested seats.
There's also a gender bias in those uncontested seats. So, 77 per cent of uncontested seats, with our caveated data—we're doing the best we can with trying to estimate people's gender—were held by male candidates, so 77 per cent male and 23 per cent female. So, there's a real gender bias there. Fifty-six per cent of our wards in Wales are single-member wards, and 35 per cent of all the seats are in single-member wards, so that's quite a high proportion.
Uncontested seats are one of the symptoms of first-past-the-post elections—the system where it's 'winner takes all' and people who are less known might not be willing to stand because they don't think they can get over the threshold of the person who's already there. When you move to a single transferable vote system, like in Scotland, overnight you saw every single uncontested seat eliminated. Since then, they have had a slight creep, but they're still far, far below where Wales is. So, the system change there made a massive difference to uncontested seats, which we can tell in Wales are biased by gender, at least. I would predict that in Wales a move to STV would most likely reduce that level of uncontested seats. And if we look at the legislation, then that's legislating for between three and six councillors if you move to STV at local government. And if we look at the data that we have now on uncontested seats, that would roughly say that, if you took the one- and two-member wards away, you would have no uncontested seats in Wales. So, there's that element of it.
There's also the element of—. We looked at wards where just a single gender of candidates were standing, so I guess this is about voter choice and this is about the type of people who you can vote for. Two hundred and forty-six wards—that's just under a third—had only a single gender of candidate standing, so that was either all male or all female, as estimated with our caveated data, and 83 per cent of these 246 were single-member wards. So, again, it's a heavily biased problem towards single-member wards.
There's also a significant gender bias in that, with over 200 of these wards having only male candidates, versus about 30 having female candidates, so it's, again, the same problem of lack of diversity tipping. So, again, we would predict that a move to STV and multimember wards would make a big difference to this, because 47 per cent of all single-member wards in Wales had a single-gender candidate list. This was just under 16 per cent for two-member wards and reduced again to 7 per cent for three- and four-member wards, with none in the five-member wards. So, again, if you eliminate those one- and two-member wards, based on the candidate lists for 2022, you would reduce heavily the number of single-gender wards down to about 1 per cent in Wales.