, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 3
So, is it then possible to go—? When you're talking about the £1.5 billion based on, earlier, and £1.3 billion—is it then possible to work that figure, into not the consumer price index, but the deflationary indicator? Or is that impossible to do?
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 3
Yes, it's households, yes.
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 3
Yes, additionality. I know I'm asking you to give me apples and pears, but—
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 3
Very briefly. That's very clear, how you've put it. Really, you would just give the two figures based upon the year that you're looking at, isn't it? But in terms of the additionality of funding based on consequentials that we've talked about—business rates…
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 2
Okay, good. Okay, thank you. So, you published a working paper in October 2023, looking at devolved income tax. You noted that this paper suggests your approach, which focuses on employment income, mitigates the risks associated with your assumption that the…
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 2
Okay.
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 2
On that.
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 2
So, just to interrupt, on that particular point that the Chair has underscored, at what point will you be moving out of the pre-COVID data, because, obviously, we could stay in the rosy past forever, couldn't we?
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 2
So, my question is: why are you using the personal incomes data from that period, but you're using more up-to-date data in other areas?
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 2
Sorry to interrupt you, from a lay person's perspective, you're using the particular cohort of data because you think that's okay, but in other areas you've deemed that you're using more up-to-date data. Could you just explain briefly why?
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 2
Yes, please.
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 2
Okay. I could press on that, but I'm going to move on. So, you've mentioned you're currently using the 2019-20 data from the survey of personal incomes due to the impacts of COVID on 2020-21 data. What challenges does this usage present, given the timelines…
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 2
It has been noted.
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 2
I'm glad you pointed that out. [Laughter.]
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 2
Two seconds, Chair. I'm ahead of myself. Can you give me my page number? Okay. Right. So, in terms of the modelling, how sensitive is your modelling for the productivity growth rate forecasts, and how could this impact the Welsh rates of income tax forecasts…
, Plenary
Debate on a Statement: The Draft Budget 2024-25
How can you empower people who can't pay to pay?
, Plenary
Debate on a Statement: The Draft Budget 2024-25
Will you take an intervention?
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 1
Thank you. And finally, Chair, what has been the net impact, in your view, Minister, of the transition from EU to UK funding in 2024-25?
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 1
My final question, Chair, so I'll try and keep it brief. Obviously, the financial hits to Wales keep coming and are multifaceted. The committee's previously expressed concern over the replacement of EU funding, certainly not a penny less anyway, if that's not…
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 1
Thank you. And in regard to the housing support grant allocation around this, and other things, such as the free school meals in holidays schemes, how have you sought to protect those budgets?
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 1
Diolch. Thank you, Chair. Turning to falling incomes and housing, how does this budget, then, address the impact of more recent falls in household income for the public across Wales, particularly for those who are already in poverty or at risk?
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 1
Okay. Thank you. What are your assumptions within the budget, then, regarding social care and schools funding, and what implications does this have on real-terms funding for other local government services, which we've also touched upon this morning?
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 1
Thank you. So, I suppose, given those tensions between supporting those existing services and investing in the future sustainability of services, in a sense I’m going to re-ask the question: what are the expectations regarding the long-discussed…
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 1
Right. We'll try our to best to be quick. I mean, contextually, Minister, it's important to note that, yes, Wales is receiving £1.3 billion less—a country that has increasing needs as a society. But you today, Minister, have stated on a number of occasions…
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 1
Thank you. In a sense, my comment is absolutely connected to the workforce cascade down in this very difficult budget, and I'd just highlight that, overall, in terms of this budget that we're looking at today, yes, we've talked about the big beasts, but I…
