, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 8
I'll bring Peter in as well.
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 8
I think Huw would like to come in on this. I'll bring you back in after, Mike.
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 8
And it becomes a bit more progressive, then, rather than just the three bands. Interesting. There we are. Well, Mike has been waiting patiently on screen and I'll go over to Mike for some questions now. Diolch.
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 8
But the behavioural effect is built into the calculator, though, isn't it?
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 8
But it's higher now that the thresholds have been frozen for a while, so more and more people are going into that. So, it's increasing some of that.
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 8
Yes, but the cumulative effect—. It's not cumulating across. Maybe I'm not explaining myself very well. Let's move on just in case I confuse myself even more, but, yes, I'll think about it for next time and I'll come back to you with a question on that…
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 8
Yes, but the 1p wouldn't—. What I'm driving at is the impact would be less. You wouldn't see it as much in your pay packet. You wouldn't see the knock-on in your pay packet as much because it's only 1p of that band.
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 8
So, effectively, it's not 1p on the whole bracket; it's only on the 10p.
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 8
In that bracket.
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 8
Yes, try and explain it back to me, because I'm not sure if I've explained it well enough.
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 8
Okay. One thing I just wanted to check, and just check my understanding, really. With the Welsh rates of income tax, the behavioural aspect of people being—. Say we put the Welsh rates of income tax up by 1p, the cumulative impact on an individual would only…
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 8
And it's that de-risking then, isn't it, of—? Because you smooth out those adjustments.
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 8
Excellent.
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 8
I suppose we're not seeing so much of the behavioural, or people moving out of the UK, because of thresholds being held. So, that fiscal drag is dragging more and more people into the higher rate and the top rate. So, I suppose there are pros and cons to…
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 8
Okay. We were in the tax conference before Christmas as well. It was quite interesting to be in a room full of people who are interested in tax. It was great to be part of that for a short time, anyway. And we were talking about all different ideas and…
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 8
But you're comfortable that it's okay at the moment.
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 8
So, is there a risk, then, if funding is being restricted or reprioritised from WRA or from NRW or local authorities, that that enforcement action, even though you want it to happen, does have a knock-on effect on income not coming in, because you're not…
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 8
Right, okay.
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 8
Forgive my ignorance, I suppose. Who checks that? Is that local authorities, or is it the WRA that goes out to check—
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 8
So, changing behaviour through that. You talked about risks there, so how big a risk is it that these things aren't—? If you're monitoring the risk, how red is it, I suppose, in a red, amber, green sort of—? Are we okay with it, or—? What sorts of margins of…
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 8
Okay. Thank you for that. That's very useful. The OBR noted in its Welsh taxes outlook report a lack of data relating to non-compliance associated with landfill disposals tax. Can you update the committee on the reasons for this and your intentions to develop…
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 8
Things that are a bit more static, I suppose.
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 8
What's the sort of time lag on that data being updated, and how regularly do you get that information through? Is it on an annual basis or is it quarterly? How does that mechanism work?
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 8
What consideration have you given to expanding the role of the OBR to look at the potential of generating Welsh macroeconomic data to enable additional Welsh-specific economic data to be developed? We obviously get some of that now, but it's generally England…
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2024-25: Evidence session 8
Diolch yn fawr. Thank you for that. As normal, this is being broadcast live and you'll have the transcript afterwards to check for accuracy. We have had an apology from Rhianon Passmore. She can't be with us this afternoon. But I'd like to welcome Huw…
