Children, Young People, and Education Committee

We'll move on to agenda item 2, which is a scrutiny session with the Cabinet Secretary and the Minister. Please can I introduce the Cabinet Secretary for Education and Minister for Further and Higher Education and thank you for your written evidence? Can you please introduce your officials for the record?

Thank you and good morning, everyone. I will ask officials to introduce themselves, if that's okay.

I'm Georgina Haarhoff. I'm the director of education.

I'm Hannah Wharf. I'm the deputy director, support for learners. Good morning.

I'm Ruth Meadows. I'm the director of tertiary education.

And I'm Nicola Edwards, deputy director for equity in education.

You're very welcome this morning, and thank you for joining us. Members have a series of questions, and I'd like to begin. Can you briefly set out what you see as the main implications for education of the Welsh Government's final budget for 2026-27? How satisfied are you that the financial pressures you noted during our scrutiny session on 27 November have been addressed by the changes since the draft budget?

Thank you very much, Buffy, for that. As Members will be aware, an agreement was reached that allowed the budget for 2026-27 to pass. That budget agreement included an extra £112.8 million for local government. That will mean an average increase of 4.5 per cent on a like-for-like basis, with all local authorities receiving increases above 4 per cent. The committee will be well aware that core funding for schools is mainly provided through the revenue support grant as part of that settlement, but they will also be aware that local authorities make the decisions on how that funding is allocated.

I can tell the committee that, following discussions across the Government, the Cabinet Secretary for Housing and Local Government wrote to local authorities on 20 January stressing that investment in education remains a key priority for the Government and that the Welsh Government supports local authorities in ensuring that schools across Wales are fully funded to address the pressures they're facing with the settlement, offering a valuable opportunity for local authorities to allocate significant resources to their schools to focus on the key pressures that they have highlighted of additional learning needs, school transport, workforce and workload.

If I can turn to my main expenditure group, because we did have some additional money for the MEG through the final budget, all MEGs were provided with a further 0.2 per cent inflationary uplift on non-pay elements of the budget and an additional 1 per cent for pay. For education, that totalled an additional £8.265 million on revenue. A significant chunk of that, £4.038 million, went to provide FE colleges, sixth forms and arm's-length bodies et cetera with a pay uplift, and the balance of that the Welsh Government has retained—£4.227 million—for ALN, which is obviously a key Government priority. We were then also allocated two other additional sums of money from the Cabinet Secretary for finance. We received £5 million revenue and £20 million additional capital. The £5 million revenue we have allocated to support the participation pressures in FE.

Turning to the substance, I suppose, of your question, a lot of the funding will go via local government, and my job now will be to—. We're having a bilateral with the Welsh Local Government Association to press on the allocation of that funding. But I think it is something that the committee will need to keep an eye on. I'm not going to sit here and say to the committee that the additional funding allocated will meet all the pressures that I described in schools. Schools are dealing with a phenomenal amount, and lots of it is not actually to do with education.

In terms of the FE pressures, I know that the committee has had a letter from Medr setting out that the pressures on FE participation for next year are around £30 million. We have made a £5 million contribution to that. So, there is still a significant pressure there, and the Minister and I are continuing to discuss that with the Cabinet Secretary for finance.

Thank you for that answer—a very comprehensive answer. We've asked you previously about the fact that boosting standards in schools and colleges no longer features in the First Minister's four priorities. What is your response to what the First Minister told the Committee for the Scrutiny of the First Minister in December, which was that education was not an area she felt she could be clearly measured on over the two years between her taking up office and the end of the Senedd term, and that it came up surprisingly little during the listening exercise she undertook to inform her priorities?

Thanks, Buffy. Education remains a top priority for the Government. I've been very clear that my priority is to raise attainment. We are starting to see improvements there through our personalised assessment national report. Our qualification results in the summer were encouraging, and we're working really hard with schools—and that includes my ministerial headteacher advisory group—local authorities, teaching unions and other key partners like Estyn to effect that change.

I've had to take some difficult decisions as Cabinet Secretary around things like additional learning needs, where we have surfaced some very worrying issues that we are now attempting to tackle. I think it's fair to say that the quality of education is still a top priority for the Government. The same goes for tertiary education, where we expect providers to take a continuous improvement approach. Indeed, from April 2026, Medr will have a duty to monitor and promote continuous improvement in the quality of tertiary education in providers, including colleges. We have asked Medr to take that quality enhancement and continuous improvement approach.

In terms of what the First Minister said to the scrutiny session, I don't think it should necessarily be a surprise to the committee that education maybe wasn't raised as much as other issues that are at the forefront of people's minds. I don't think anyone would argue that the listening exercise was a strictly representative exercise or a scientific exercise. For me, there is the issue of doing what's right on these things. As far as I'm concerned, investing in education is the most important strategic investment any Government can make. We have a commitment to the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015. I think investing in education is absolutely fundamental to that.

What I would say as well is that there are lots of things that Governments fund that, if you ask the public, maybe they wouldn't think were important. Children's social care is one of them, where we spend millions of pounds. But the public would have something to say then when bad things happen to children because that's not supported.

For me, what this also illustrates is the fact that we have to listen to the voices of children in this work that we do. For me, that's why things like children's rights impact assessments are so important, because of all the groups in society, children don't have that vote and we have to make sure that their voices are heard. Things like children's rights impact assessments are ways of making sure that their needs get to the top of the list.

Thank you. We now have questions from Vaughan Gething, please.

Thank you, Chair. Apologies for being late. I managed to go to the other side of the building. That is my fault and no-one else's. Although that links into my question, which is about improving attendance. [Laughter.] See what I did there?

And punctuality.

Now, you were clear, I think, when you became the education Secretary, about your priorities: the curriculum implementation, ALN—. So, you've then got three A's: ALN, achievement and attendance. And it's been a focus for you, but we haven't seen—. There's actually been a tiny decrease in attendance in the academic year to date compared to last year. The challenge is: do you think the work that you're currently doing is going to bear fruit? For example, the investment in family engagement officers. I know, sometimes, you say, 'Well, actually, it would be much worse if we weren't doing this.' But the aim is to improve attendance significantly, because we haven't recovered to the place we were at before the pandemic. So, it's really about not just where does this figure on your priorities—it's clear it's one of your priorities—but about then how you expect to assess the impact of what's been done by you and partners, because I accept that not all of this takes place from your office, but then assessing the effectiveness and what comes next to improve attendance, which all of us around this table and beyond would want to see.

Well, thank you for the question, Vaughan. And, as you say, attendance has been one of my top priorities with the other areas that you highlighted, but also all of them underpinned by well-being, which is, of course, key to the attendance challenges.

As you've highlighted, there was a tiny 0.1 per cent drop in attendance for the last few months that we've got the reporting data for. I think that is a very small drop, and our understanding is it's reflective of higher levels of illness in that period. We know that the flu season hit earlier, and we also had some disruption with weather, but that doesn't mean that we are in any way complacent about that.

And our figures for the last academic year that we've got figures for, 2024-25, showed that attendance rose to 91.1 per cent, up from 90.5 per cent in 2023-24. We also saw levels of persistent absence fall, and that levels of attendance for learners eligible for free school meals increased. But we're not in any way complacent about this, because it is really challenging, and it's another area where all sorts of countries are having challenges with attendance.

We've invested this year the additional £7 million for initiatives to support attendance, and that's included a significant sum of money for family engagement officers, and we're expecting an update in June from them on what they've seen, in terms of improving attendance. But I think that their work, and we've got a network now of them that we bring together, I've met with them, and they are doing the really granular work with families to tackle the complexity of the issues that lead to children not attending school, and they are really complex. It could be mental health, transport, poverty, not having a coat to wear, and they're working with those families to overcome those barriers.

But we're also doing other things. As I say, we're not complacent. We're going to be reviewing—. There's a consultation starting on 12 February on our school attendance codes. That's so that we get even more granular information on the reasons why children aren't in school. So, for example, we'll be able to identify if children aren't in school because of a physical or a mental health issue, and that will help us then to drive our actions. We're following up the recommendations from the Estyn report, which they built on. We're driving our work on mental health forward at pace, and that's a really important thing. We want our schools to be places that feel safe and welcoming and where all our learners feel like they belong. That's very important if we're going to encourage them to come to school.

We're looking at the role youth workers can play with attendance and we've got some examples of projects where that's been very successful, for example, in Blaenau Gwent. We're also doing focused work with young people to try and understand the reasons why they don't want to come to school, what we can do to address those barriers. But also, working with parents, we're doing focused work. Because there's definitely been something about parents, especially since the pandemic, not having the same approach to ensuring their children are always in school.

That's something that I wanted to take up in the next question, about how much this is about a parental view on the importance of attending school and the impact the pandemic has had. Because there is this marked difference in absence rates, but particularly in persistent absence—I think that's more than a 10 per cent absence. There's a big socioeconomic gradient. So, children who would be eligible for free school meals, when we did have that distinction—certainly in secondary schools, where that is part of it still—there's a much, much bigger difference compared to the pandemic. And I guess it's not just about the diagnosis of the challenge and the problem—. And I accept that with children and young people, there's a significant difference in well-being and approach to life post pandemic that is still there compared to pre pandemic. So, I'm not suggesting that the circumstances are exactly the same. But I'm interested in the work that you describe, the variety of initiatives, where do you take a view about, not just how effective those are, but about when do you think we'll be in a position where we'll see a significant difference being made to try to return to, at the very least, pre-pandemic levels?

And this is something about the responsibility in the system, about who needs to work with who. The two of you can't fix the whole system. If there is a magic button to push in your office, I'd be delighted if someone would tell you where it is. But there's you, there's the local authority leadership, there's the challenges in individual schools and families of schools. I'm trying to understand what does that improvement system look like and when will we tell if we've made enough difference.

Because if your diagnosis is, 'We understand the problem and we think we'll get there within x period of time', that would be really helpful to understand and know, or if it's about, 'We think we'll understand whether what we're doing is making a big enough difference at a certain point in time.' Because it's not just about the end of this Senedd term, it's about, in each year, whoever's in Government, this is going to be a challenge for those children and young people, and that is a challenge, then, for the country as well.

So, I'm trying to understand: when do you assess the effectiveness of each of those measures? How do you assess the role that each tier has to play? And, then, what do you do, whether it's the hard power of the Government or the convening power of the Government, where, if you say, 'I want to talk to you', that people will attend and, then, hopefully do what they said they'll do in the meeting?

Okay. Well, there's a lot in that question—

There is.

—and this is a complex area and there is no one silver bullet, I don't think, on attendance. And I think you're right to point to the importance of evaluating what we're doing, and we've got an evaluation that's due to report on our community-focused schools approach in a few months, which—

It's coming out on the twenty-fourth.

The twenty-fourth of this month? There we are. It's this month that the evaluation is coming out. We've also been doing some work with Professor Ann John, who will be known to the committee, and she has been looking at the academic evidence about what works for attendance. We've had some interim findings from that, but we're waiting for her full report to be peer reviewed. So, for example, she had identified that programmes that support social and emotional learning for young people were beneficial in promoting attendance, some of the other initiatives that are out there were less so. And I think, as a Government, we always try and do things that are evidence based because that's very important.

You mentioned local authorities. And it's not just an issue, obviously, for us as a Government, local authorities have got a really important role to play. One of the things Estyn recommended in their updated report was targets for local authorities. That's quite a challenging issue because I think targets in this space could have unintended consequences for children. So, if you've got a child who has got 20 per cent attendance, then for that child, if they're in at 50 per cent, that's an improvement, isn't it? But what we are doing is working with local authorities to try to develop more smart targets that are about the direction of travel and the improvements that we're seeing in their areas. We've got the school improvement partnership programme now, and that will be part of that work. Because all these issues are systematic issues, aren't they, so we can't have school improvement just looking at attainment. It's got to look at all the things that underpin attainment, like well-being, attendance, behaviour. It's got to be part of the wider piece.

I mean, the point about parents, and I think we do recognise that there has been a change in attitudes to attendance, especially since the pandemic. We have got, now, some work going on with groups such as Parentkind to try and unpick some of those issues, and heads have said to me that they feel that the contract between school and community has broken down a little bit since the pandemic, and we need to address that, really, not just in the attendance space, but also with behaviour, because that's the other area where we're seeing major differences in terms of parental attitudes.

I'm sure the committee will be really interested when that evaluation is done.

We can send it to the committee when it's finished.

That would be great. And if there's more you're doing in evaluating the effectiveness of this work, that would be really helpful for us to know as well. And I'll stop there, Chair.

Vikki wanted to come in.

Can I just come in there with regard to the role of the FE sector, particularly in the 14 to 16 space? One of the most powerful interventions we've seen to increase attendance and attainment is the junior apprenticeship programme. I mean, the results there are absolutely phenomenal. That's why we doubled the budget for the junior apprenticeship programme. It is about getting that right fit for learners and recognising that a school environment isn't the best fit for some of our learners. So, I think that's an important area to consider when we're looking at boosting attendance and all the issues that sit with it as well.

To be fair, I think the committee is very positive about the junior apprenticeship programme, and it's welcome that you've invested more in it.

Very much so. Thank you. Thank you for that answer. Now we have questions from Natasha, please.

Thank you, Chair. Good morning, everybody. Cabinet Secretary, last year in May, you held a behavioural summit, which I'm sure we, alongside many others, have heard about in quite some depth and detail. I'd just like to know, can you update us on the work that you've carried out to address deteriorating standards in behaviour within schools? It would be really nice to know if, indeed, there's going to be any form of guidance that's going to be issued as a consequence of this.

Okay. Thank you. Well, I could talk for about two hours on behaviour, and I don't want to do that because I want the committee to have the opportunity to also put questions to Vikki. If I can let the committee know, as well, that on 24 February, I'm going to be making a statement to the Senedd, and it's going to be on well-being, inclusion, which behaviour is a key part of. So, I'll be able to set out more detail there.

We've been working very hard on the actions arising from the summit. There will be—. Well, there has already been new guidance, actually, because we updated our behaviour toolkit, which was published in September. We've also consulted on amendments to our anti-bullying guidance, and we've prioritised two specific areas on guidance. The one is the mobile phone forum, and the other one is looking at exclusions and detentions. So, both of those will bring forward new guidance.

But you'll be aware, Natasha, that we've set out five immediate actions as a result of the summit. There's the multi-agency working, where we're also making progress. I took the paper to Cabinet on societal pressures on schools, and it's obtained a cross-Government commitment to that area of work. We've now established a group of officials that are working across Government on those issues, and I attended the first meeting of that the other day. We're mapping policies across the Government that are impacted on the behaviour programme—that'll be completed by the spring.

As I said, there'll be new guidance on mobile phones, on exclusions and detentions, but we also made commitments to—. We'll be further updating the behaviour toolkit, based on the work that we're doing with schools. One of the actions was to establish a system for sharing best practice between schools, and we have engaged our higher education partners in that work. That will also lead to further resources for schools as well. The professional learning work is really important. Our higher ed partners are going to be an important part of exploring those issues with schools so that Dysgu can take forward the work on professional learning. We're also working on the consistent definitions and reporting of incidents. One of those actions relates directly to the round-table on violence in schools, and there's an announcement imminent on new guidance on that. As I said, I could go on—

That's fine. I appreciate it. No worries.

Thank you. But there will be a further opportunity in Plenary.

Okay. Great. Thank you, Cabinet Secretary. How concerned are you by the increasing rates of school exclusions, particularly for those that are five days or less, particularly in secondary schools, which have increased from 75 per 1,000 in 2018-19, and have gone up to 144 out of 1,000 pupils in 2023-24? And do you—? In fact, are you fully satisfied that schools and local authorities are actually acting appropriately when it comes to excluding children?

Thanks, Natasha. Well, I'm very worried about the rates of exclusions. As you've highlighted, they have gone up, and we're seeing now increased exclusions amongst younger children, and also rising levels of short-term exclusions. I don't think we can look at exclusions in isolation. I think it's driven by a combination of persistent behaviour problems, post-COVID mental health, neurodiversity-related issues, inconsistencies in early intervention, et cetera. But I want to be clear that I see exclusions as—. If children are excluded, it is not good for their mental health. The committee took evidence in your attendance inquiry from Ann John, who also highlighted that there's a link between exclusions and really adverse mental health impacts. So, we are committed to improving things in this space. As I said, it was a key action from the behaviour summit—that we would have this forum that is looking at this in a very focused way. That group has been meeting regularly, and we're anticipating—there'll have to be consultation on the new guidance arising from it—that new guidance on exclusions and detentions will be published in readiness for the 2026-27 academic year. But these are complex issues, and it's not just about a policy on paper; it's how the whole ethos of the school works, mental health, sense of belonging, and everybody working together to support children and young people.

Okay. Thank you. I'd like to move on to school standards now, because it's a really important issue as well. What is the latest position regarding school improvement services, according to you? Are the new local authority partnerships fully established now? And how confident are you that, together, alongside working with schools, they will be using the new school improvement guidance that you published this January to actually improve school standards?

Thanks, Natasha. Well, as you said, we published the new school improvement guidance in January. That sets out clear roles and responsibilities for improvement and accountability within the system. We've been clear that local authorities need to work in partnership with their schools to improve standards. Local authorities are, in law, the people who are responsible for the statutory raising of standards. All local authorities have now established their local structures, and there's been a lot of work put in by officials and local authorities to get to that point. This is an area that is going to take time to bed in. I do think, again—I know that the committee is thinking about legacy reports—that this will be an area that any committee in the next Senedd will need to have oversight of.

But we also, as well as those local arrangements, have a very clear national role. We've got Dysgu now, which will provide that once-for-Wales professional learning. We've got the new education improvement team in the Welsh Government. They're going to visit all local authorities over the next three months to look at how school improvement services are being delivered on the ground, and they will have a key role in sharing good practice. We've also established a national network of school improvement and inclusion leads that we're working with, because you can't have school improvement over there and inclusion over there. That's not going to work.

But I think it is important to reassure the committee as well that Estyn have got a really key role to play in monitoring this space. They've increased their interaction with schools since September 2024. They now visit schools twice within a six-year cycle, once for their co-inspection and once for an interim visit. That's a really important part of monitoring the system. They also inspect local authorities. Obviously, all their reports are published. I meet with Estyn regularly as well.

I think, as well, to note, that we are also really improving the data that's available, so that we've got a clear view of what's happening. I've talked to the committee before about the work that we're doing around personalised assessments and linking those to age-related expectations. Local authorities have told us they need better data. As part of this, we're going to have to have much richer data, so that we can monitor how things are going.

From my point of view, we don't want any children to be left behind, and we know that different local authorities are in different places on this. There are authorities like Ynys Môn that are way ahead of the game and are doing brilliant work. Other authorities will have more work to do. So, for us as a Government, we have to continue to work with them to make sure that that is driven forward. But I would say that there's also an important role for any committee in the next Senedd to monitor how this work is developing.

Thanks for your response, Cabinet Secretary. I appreciate you mentioning Estyn, actually, because I wanted to touch upon them as well. I appreciate that Estyn gave an early insight report in 2024-25, and in that report they mentioned some fundamental weaknesses, particularly in secondary schools, namely that 13 per cent were in special measures across Wales, or requiring significant improvement. You touched upon Dysgu as well. So, I'd like to know—. Obviously, you said in many of your answers that it's going to take time, but if things don't improve, where does the buck stop? Who is responsible, ultimately, for the failings?

I know that the committee's written to me, haven't they, about the school improvement scrutiny session and, obviously, the committee will have a full response on that in due course. I am worried about the situation with secondary schools going into special measures, and I've got a meeting with Estyn next week to discuss it. This financial year, I was able to invest some targeted money to support schools causing concern. It hasn't been possible to do that in the budget for next year, but I'm going to be discussing that in detail with Estyn.

I do think that Dysgu will be a game-changer, because the issues that Estyn consistently raises in terms of concerns about schools are things like the quality of teaching and learning, which is a very fundamental issue, which we want Dysgu to help with. But one of the other areas they regularly raise is that schools and, indeed, local authorities are not as good as they should be at self-evaluation. So, there's going to be a key role there as well. We need to build on that expertise on self-evaluation, and Dysgu will have a key role in that.

So, out of all the bodies that I mentioned—Estyn, the school, Dysgu and you, but, obviously, we'll wait to see what happens after May, but the Cabinet Secretary for Education—where does the buck stop if standards do not improve?

Well, I think the buck stops with all of us, really. It's a system, isn't it? Local authorities have got the statutory responsibility for school improvement. That's the way things have been set up in Wales. We've got local management of schools in Wales. Maybe there's a role for future committees to look at that whole legislative framework, but, obviously, some of the buck will stop with the Government, and I would never hide from my responsibilities there. I've only had—. Well, it'll be two years that I've been in post, and in that time I've really tried to focus, because schools said, 'You're asking us to do too many different things. Tell us what you really want us to do.' So, we've tried to provide that clarity around literacy, numeracy, well-being and inclusion, and the same with Dysgu—literacy, numeracy, well-being and inclusion—to get rid of all that white noise that's around the other things.

Okay.

I think Cefin wanted to come in.

Yes, could I just come in with a supplementary on the schools in special measures? It’s 13 per cent, so obviously it's concerning that so many are in that situation. In terms of your conversations with Estyn and the work that you do as officers as well, have you identified common themes or cross-cutting issues of a general nature that are tied in with these particular schools in any way?

Well, I think one of the themes would be the quality of teaching and learning, wouldn't it? That comes up regularly. And self-evaluation. Those, I think, are the main issues that come up in inspections. Obviously, there are some inspections where things like safeguarding issues are raised, and that's a huge concern as well. But in terms of a general trend, it's quality of teaching and learning, self-evaluation. Is there anything you wanted to add?

I was going to reflect that some of the issues seem to be about the social ills point that you mentioned before, and just the quantity of issues that schools are having to deal with, particularly secondary schools. It is the first year of the inspection cycle, so many of these schools haven't been inspected for the last eight years, and that's been quite a significant period of change for schools. But they're having to change their role so significantly that just the quantity of issues they have to address is really, really challenging and complex.

And funding is starting to come up in some inspection reports. But I can't overemphasise to the committee enough this point about what schools are dealing with. I know I've raised it quite a few times, but it is the issue that has had the biggest impact on me since coming into post, seeing that schools aren't like they were when I was a child. They're not even like they were when I was a committee Chair. The complexity of what they're dealing with is massive.

So, if you look at the school readiness issue, obviously the focus in the media is often on things like toilet training, but what I'm really worried about is that I've got headteachers who have told me recently that half of their children in reception class cannot speak, and they're not not speaking because there's some sort of health issue, it’s because they haven't developed language. Now, that is a really serious issue that schools are having to deal with. But, really, that needs to be addressed before they come to school. There's something there about communication with children and young people, and we're getting growing evidence that people are talking to children less, and that they're not developing those language skills. I had one school in north Wales recently who said to me that a third of their children didn't recognise their name when it was spoken to them. Now, that is really, really serious, and there needs to be a really strong focus on early years, on parent-infant relationships and things like that—the first thousand days.

Thank you so much. Well, Cabinet Secretary, you talked about literacy in your previous response to me, so I'd like to bring the questions towards your literacy panel. I know I've asked you many times about this in the Chamber, but I'd like to talk to you a bit more in depth about it now. Have you received a report from the expert literacy panel as of yet? And have they provided any clear direction on matters such as the best approach to teaching children how to read across Wales?

Thanks, Natasha. I met with the literacy panel before Christmas and they provided some initial findings for me. They've carefully considered the evidence and have developed some clear principles on literacy. But what I didn't want to do is rush this, because it's too important, and the committee will be aware that it's also quite a contested space. So, what I did was I asked the panel then to share their findings with Estyn and Dysgu before they submit their final conclusions to me. Both Estyn and Dysgu have met with the panel. They've both welcomed their work. I'm meeting Estyn and Dysgu next week to discuss the work of the panel, and then once those meetings are completed, and the panel have reviewed their final principles, I will be provided with that report, which I'm very happy to share with the committee.

Okay, great. The panel itself has received a lot of criticism, particularly surrounding the chair of Reading Reform Foundation UK, which has come from Elizabeth Nonweiler and her warning that the CAL:ON initiative risks wasting £8.2 million in the future and could actually make things worse for students, not better. What would you say about that criticism?

Well, what I would say is that I had a presentation on the CAL:ON project very recently. They're very willing to come and present to the committee to provide a technical briefing, and I would encourage the committee to take up that offer. Obviously, I know that you wrote to Elizabeth, but you haven't had any evidence from the literacy panel, so I would definitely recommend that you do that.

There is a very strong focus, as part of CAL:ON, on systematic synthetic phonics. Importantly, it's very evidence based and builds on evidence from education systems like Mississippi, where they've done really well with their literacy, and also from New Zealand. New Zealand are taking a much more directive approach on literacy now, because I met the New Zealand Minister last year.

CAL:ON came to my ministerial headteachers advisory group in January, and the feedback was overwhelmingly positive. I was quite surprised about how happy everybody was about the presentation that they'd had. So, I would encourage the committee to take up that offer, if you've got time, to have that presentation from CAL:ON, so that you've got the rounder picture.

I have met Elizabeth, who is undoubtedly really committed to encouraging children to learn to read, and I am going to meet her again before we publish the final principles.

Okay. Thank you, Chair.

Thank you. We now have some questions from Carolyn Thomas, please.

Thank you, Chair. I've got some questions about ALN reforms. Can you provide an update on progress since you announced five key areas of action in October? It was in response to the review you instigated of the implementation of the new additional learning needs system.

Thank you. Again, this is an area where I've got a lot of information that could take up a lot of time. Am I right in thinking that the committee is going to write to me about this as well? So, there'll be an opportunity there to unpick some of those issues. But, since October, we've been working very hard, especially officials, to deliver on the issues that we discussed in the committee, and the committee will be aware that, as part of the budget decisions I made, I prioritised funding for ALN.

In terms of one of the really key issues, which was the ALN guidance and clarifying the legal definitions around it, officials have been working closely with local authorities, schools and other partners on this, and the guidance, we hope, will now be issued before the end of March. That guidance will set out the process for identifying and evidencing ALN using the two-stage legal test, along with clear expectations on how decisions should be communicated, how disputes and reconsiderations should be handled, and how families can exercise their rights of appeal, because the committee will be aware that there was a lot of variation in what parents had been told about the process.

We've also then got a second suite of guidance, which is going to set out expectations of how we support children and young people in specific circumstances, in particular learners with ALN who are looked after, electively home-educated learners, and those receiving education other than at school, and that will be published on the same timescale.

I should let the committee know, though, that the work around defining 'provision made generally', which I know has been a thorny issue across Wales, that work has continued. Everybody has been working together to establish a draft description of provision made available. But, given the scale and significance of this work and the potential impact on learners, families and the workforce, we have been advised that we have to consult on that guidance, and that won't be possible before the end of term. Our legal services have said the scale of this is so significant there has to be a consultation on that, but that will be able to proceed straight after the election and will be for any new Government, then, to deal with.

In terms of national consistency, priority 2, we've just completed a consultation on improving the data that's available on ALN. This is a really important step so that we can understand what is genuinely happening in the system, and we're going to lay amended regulations on that before the end of the Senedd.

We have completed the work around individual development plans, and we've now got a much better understanding of the IDP situation across Wales. You'll remember I told the committee that we had been surveying schools, and special schools in particular, and I'm just waiting for advice to come up on the options that are available to strengthen that.

You covered both questions. [Laughter.] I remember that we received a petition saying, 'Please don't define ALN as universal provision', or making sure. I think that parents, as well as teachers, want the guidance on the interpretation and application of key terms with the ALN definition. So, it just helps everybody, really.

Definitely.

Regarding health as well, we've raised it in the Senedd, we've had a short debate on Tourette's, haven't we, for example? Tourette's affects one in 100 people, and there's no clear pathway at the moment for diagnostic treatment. Also, it was raised about awareness among teachers as well, making sure they have the proper training. I'm pleased to hear that education and health are working more closely. The IDPs as well are something that have been of concern. So, I was glad to hear what you had to say.

Thank you. Just on the teachers' point, just to say that I made that commitment in the Chamber when I did the statement about making sure that our whole workforce is upskilled in supporting children with ALN. That has been communicated to Dysgu. That is a key priority for Dysgu. We will not deliver an inclusive education system unless our whole workforce is empowered to support children with ALN.

Can I just ask, as you answered my two questions, a supplementary? When we visit schools, we know how important it is to have good teaching assistants as well, to help with that support and nurturing, and to help take pressure off teachers as well. It's so important for inclusion, but with behaviour and everything like that. I know it's been a priority to make sure that funding is going to our front-line services through local authorities and health, and I know that a lot of money is needed, actually, to go into the system, but how helpful do you think it's been now to prioritise that money to our front-line services? And how important do you think it is for us, actually, as a committee, to maybe write to local authorities to help you push so that that money is going to education and those services?

Thank you. I'd welcome any help with ensuring that the money reaches education. So, that would be really helpful.

You mentioned teaching assistants and that's been a priority for me, really. So, we're actively working with trade union partners to tackle some of the challenges facing TAs. It's about pay, because some of them can get more working for Aldi, but in a much less demanding job. But it's also about making sure that they've got access to professional learning. And also, a huge concern for me, which is something that we've really prioritised in discussion with health, is some of the medical procedures that they are doing in schools, which include things like, you know, tracheostomies, tube feeding and things like that. So, that is a priority in the work that we're doing with health, to make sure that we address that through the review of supporting healthcare needs guidance. But I am a huge fan of TAs; they are really the glue that hold our schools together, and we have to do more to support them. I've already said that we're committed, as a Government, to having legislation on the school support staff negotiating body. We've got a Bill manager there. Obviously, it would be for an incoming Government now, but I would hope that any incoming Government would understand the value of supporting and valuing our TAs.

Thank you. We are running very, very behind, so could I just remind everybody to be as concise as possible with their questions and answers, because the time is really running away from us? I'll go to Cefin Campbell now, please.

Diolch yn fawr iawn. Cwestiwn i chi ar ddiogelu mewn addysg, ac mae hyn yn ymwneud â'r adolygiad diogelu mewn addysg rŷch chi wedi ei gomisiynu ers digwyddiad Neil Foden a'r adolygiad ymarfer plant y gwnaeth Cyngor Gwynedd ei gyhoeddi hefyd. Allwch chi roi diweddariad i ni ar yr adolygiad yma a ble rŷch chi wedi cyrraedd? Ac allech chi gadarnhau a ydy'r adolygiad penodol ar addysg yn rhan o adolygiad mwy cyffredinol, fel y gwnaethoch chi ei ddweud mewn adroddiad penderfyniad nôl ym mis Tachwedd?

Thanks, Cefin. I missed the start of that, but I think you were just asking for an update on the work arising from 'Our Bravery Brought Justice'.

Yes, that's it. Yes.

Yes, okay. What we've done is take a two-stage approach to the reviews. The first is the general safeguarding review, which is being chaired by Jan Pickles and is looking at the national safeguarding landscape, how everybody works together. That will be followed by the education review. Initially, I was a bit concerned about that, because I wanted to get on with the education one, but Jan herself was clear in the child practice review report that you can't see individual areas in isolation, that you have to look at this from a multi-agency perspective. So, that's why we've taken that stance. And Jan, as I say, is doing that work. When I met Jan, I said to her, 'Leave no stone unturned. If you think there's something that, as a Government, we should have done better, tell us, be completely upfront about that.' Jan will also be involved in the education safeguarding review. And, of course, alongside that, I've announced the review of school governors as well, which was a key issue from the CPR. And then the other work that we committed to is proceeding the work—. Care Inspectorate Wales and Estyn have been in to Gwynedd, done the inspections. CIW will be following up on the implementation of all these issues across Wales. The section 5 review is nearly completed, and we'll be able to go out and publish something on that, so that work is proceeding at pace right across the board. But, again, it will be important for a committee in the next Senedd to keep a very close eye on this, because we don't ever want this situation to happen again.

Yn ôl fy nealltwriaeth i, mae'r gwaith yn cael ei arwain gan yr adran gofal cymdeithasol. Oes yna elfen o risg yn hynny yn eich barn chi, neu ydych chi'n hapus y bydd addysg a'r holl sectorau a meysydd polisi eraill yn cael yr un math o sylw?

The general safeguarding review is being led by social care, because, obviously, that's where this issue sits. But officials have been working very closely with social care officials, and that work will continue. The decision about where the education safeguarding review fits into this was taken in discussions with the social care officials. I'm content that, from what I've seen, everybody is working together. We couldn't look at education just in isolation because, if you look at the CPR, there were all those issues about how children's social care had behaved, the regional safeguarding board, et cetera. So, it has to be joined up.

Okay. If I could just move on to children not in education, which was going to be the subject of a legislative consent motion discussion yesterday, you're committed to doing a database pilot on children not in education through the regulations passed last April. The suggestion is that it's separate but aligned to the provisions in respect of children not in school in the Children's Wellbeing and Schools Bill. So, can you explain the exact relationship between the two pieces of work? Are the terms 'children missing education' and 'children not in school' interchangeable? Are they different? Do they have distinct meanings in policy and legal terms?

They do have distinct meanings in legal and policy terms. So, children missing education are children who are of compulsory school age, who are not registered at school, and the local authority have not been able to determine they are in receipt of a suitable and efficient education other than at school. The local authority may be aware of the family but unable to locate them, or they may simply not even be aware that that child exists. So, children not in school are a different category, because they would be children who could be being home educated, or they could be in an alternative setting.

Before I bring Nicola in, who'll probably explain that better than I could, just to say that with the LCM—and I'm grateful to you and Natasha for your engagement on the LCM—we had to postpone that because there were further amendments tabled in Westminster and we wanted to present a more complete LCM to the Senedd. But, Nicola, I'm sure you could do a better job than I just did on that.

That's fine. So, as the Cabinet Secretary said, children missing education are those for whom we're not confident they're receiving any education at all. So, we did have a pilot. You're right, you had the regulations that were passed earlier. We did a pilot within seven local authorities. We've got an evaluation of that under way, and we're expecting that to report imminently. There's some work going on with that at the moment. I think it's fair to say that it highlighted what we thought it might, which was that this is particularly challenging. We were looking to draw together a range of different data as part of the database trial, and it's certainly shown that there were more children that were thrown up than perhaps some of the local authorities had expected, more things they needed to follow through on, and it took a bit more time to process through. So, we're looking forward to that evaluation to see how we could take that work forward.

With children who are not in school, as the Cabinet Secretary has said, that's quite a large cohort, and it could include learners who are in our education other than at school programme or who are in elective home education and are considered to be receiving an efficient education, one that is suitable and appropriate. So, they would not be classed as missing education, but they are not in school. So, in the context of your previous questions around safeguarding, knowing who those children are and where they are is critically important if we're going to make sure we're comfortable with where they are.

The provisions that are in the Children's Wellbeing and Schools Bill, which are the subject of the LCM around children not in school, are designed to increase the oversight and the authority and the ability of local authorities to track those children, to know where they are, to be comfortable that they're being safely looked after and safely provided with the education they should be. And, obviously, there are other provisions in that Bill as well that are also linked to looking after quite vulnerable children and learners.

Ocê. Diolch.

I see it as a bit like a Swiss cheese thing, you know, to make sure that we cover off everything in this space.

Yes. Okay. Diolch. Thank you.

Thank you. We now have a question again from Vaughan, please.

Thank you. Minister, you spoke earlier about a new helpful intervention about the junior apprenticeship programme. You've also said before this, in terms of the post-16 landscape that you're responsible for, that you think it's the responsibility of Government Ministers to provide a legacy report that sets out potential future options for the portfolio—whoever the Government is, that there's a view about the future. You've already published a paper on the future of the tertiary education system in Wales. Is there anything else that you would like to see the next Welsh Government prioritise for the post-16 sector, and why?

Thank you, Vaughan. I think the first thing that any incoming Government really needs to get to grips with is the fact that by the time of the following Senedd election in 2030 is when we're going to see what's predicted to be—well, what will be—a decade-long decline in the number of 16 to 18-year-olds in Wales. It's a massive demographic change and it will require schools, colleges and universities to adapt hugely to that. So, the next Government will undoubtedly need to spend the next Senedd term enacting reforms that prepare the tertiary sector for that future.

My own preferences on the next Government's priorities will, in part, be guided by the responses to our call for submissions. That's why we've launched the exercise. But I think that the next Government will need to prioritise action that directly addresses the five challenges we've outlined. So, if I can go through those, firstly, on tertiary participation, we definitely need to continue to improve attainment in schools; the system, you know, is so joined up. We need more learners entering post-16 education at level 3. But we also need to ensure, as I was saying earlier, that every learner, regardless of their outcomes, can realise their own aspirations through tertiary education. So, we've got to ensure that the pathways for that growing number of learners entering at level 2 and below is enabling them, particularly on the vocational pathways, to reach level 3.

And then, secondly, we look at the need to redirect colleges and universities even more towards lifelong and part-time learning opportunities to serve what will be an increasingly ageing population and to provide adults that are both in work and out of work with the opportunities they need to acquire the skills to boost our economy.

And then, for my third priority, we do need to find the new ways for schools, colleges and universities to co-ordinate and align their activity. We need schools and colleges working together to provide that breadth and depth of options for young people at 16 and to address that fundamental threat that we've talked about previously in the committee of intensive market competition for students. That threat is posing a long-term challenge to the financial sustainability of some of our universities.

The fourth challenge was around funding, funding that's sustainable, while also recognising that significant increases in overall funding, both in FE and HE, are not likely to be affordable. That's going to require some tough choices for the next Government about what to prioritise and to require the sector to consider how it will deliver most efficiently and effectively. And that's what this call for evidence is all about, teasing all of that out of the sector so that we're in a position where we're not just looking at the challenges but the possible solutions.

Now, we could have a whole session just on this area—the future of learning for workers as well as work-based learning. I want to stick to the brief—and I don't need to look at the Chair for this—but the point with all of those different reforms you set out, and obviously the ongoing reforms around the creation of Medr and their role, this committee and a future committee will need to get used to the difference between what a ministerial team does and gives direction for and their own responsibilities set out in statute. So, I'm interested in that call for evidence and about what that then means for the responsibilities Medr has for delivery and oversight of our post-16 system. And do you envisage this being not something that a Minister then decides, but how that then changes, if you like, the direction that is formally given to Medr and how that's then done, because, obviously, this committee and this place will need to get used to scrutinising them more and more for the very active role that they've got, which is very different to where we started this Senedd term?

Yes, absolutely. So, Medr will have a vital role to play in addressing and delivering the next Government's response to these challenges. So, to recap, Medr is responsible for grant funding, regulation and performance monitoring in the sector. Also, they play a vital role in leadership and co-ordination with local authorities, colleges, universities and training providers as well. So, what Medr will be doing—will need to do, and I'm sure will be doing—is aligning its work in those areas with the direction of travel that the next Government sets, and also Government policy on overall funding, on student support, qualifications, policy. I've enjoyed a close working relationship with Medr, and it's really vital that that kind of close working relationship between Government Ministers and Medr continues to deliver a coherent package of reforms.

Okay. I'll stop there, Chair, instead of going on.

Thank you. Back to Natasha, please.

Thank you, Chair. Minister, Universities Wales warn that the 2026-27 budget does not reflect the continued financial pressures that are facing universities. Can you explain to the committee how this can be justified given the significant financial pressures facing the sector, and the central role that a financially sustainable university sector plays—sorry, I can't speak today—in driving innovation, skills and, ultimately, economic growth throughout Wales?

Thank you for that question, Natasha. I'd like to start by reiterating that, based on monitoring and reporting by Medr, we don't believe there's an immediate risk of any university in Wales facing financial collapse. I think it's really important to put that on the record, but also to acknowledge that it continues to be a challenging period financially for many of our institutions, primarily due to the fall in international student numbers. And they're taking those difficult, but necessary, steps to remain on a sound financial footing.

Universities across Wales, and across the UK, have had to take difficult decisions to navigate the loss of income. That includes restructuring, cutting non-staff costs as well. But I am assured, through my meetings with both the trade unions and vice-chancellors that institutions have done what they can to minimise redundancies where possible, and I've regularly reiterated to the sector that I expect them to work in social partnership during these times. But, nevertheless, as our paper highlights, there are those longer term challenges to the status quo, to increased domestic student competition, international competition, as well as the forthcoming decline in the number of 18-year-olds.

So, the reason I say all that is that simply increasing the funding for the sector won't address those challenges by itself. So, if you look, for example, at the Association of University Directors of Estates—that's a mouthful—they estimated, last week, that between 10 per cent and 40 per cent of some universities' estates in the UK is underutilised, and, anecdotally, my officials have been told that there's extensive underutilisation of estates in Wales. So, that represents a really massive cost in these institutions that are autonomous of Government, and it's also a possible opportunity for savings as well, but it can't be for the Government to direct the sector in how to do that. But one of the ways of addressing those challenges, coming back to my paper again, is through greater collaboration, and we've already seen several examples of effective collaboration across the tertiary sector in Wales, and a lot of that is to do with saving costs through back-room services, for example. I could go on and give you more examples of that, but I think, Chair, that we probably need to move on, don't we?

We're just trying to jiggle some questions around here so that we get the answers that we need.

That's fine, Chair. Thank you, Chair.

Okay. Right. If we go back to Carolyn, please, if that's okay.

Just regarding student tuition fees?

Yes, please.

Okay. The fee limits have risen for three academic years in a row now. Is it due to the financial challenges facing universities? And to what extent is the decision to increase the fee to provide additional funding for institutions balanced against the concern that it could put people off going to university, especially learners from lower income backgrounds?

Yes, thank you, Carolyn. So, the increases to the tuition fee limits are to keep pace with the increases in fees in England to ensure that our Welsh universities are not at a competitive disadvantage with those universities across the border. We estimate that those three increases over the last three years have each been worth approximately £20 million to the Welsh sector annually, and that, of course, has followed many years of real-terms decline in university income per full-time undergraduate student, but nonetheless income per student in Wales remains higher than in Scotland and only very slightly lower than in England.

I think you're right to highlight that this is a difficult balance to strike. There's no clear evidence that maintaining the fee level in line with inflation is a deterrent to attending university. A really important point I'd like to make sure that I get across today is that those increases in tuition fees shouldn't deter anyone in Wales from applying to university. They don't reflect the upfront costs to students and they don't increase the monthly loan repayments after graduation. And perhaps most importantly as well, unlike the rest of the UK, we know in Wales that we still have a shortage of graduates, and that is predicted to continue in the future. And that's why it's important that we get the message out there that university is well worth that investment by many, not just our young people, but mature learners as well.

Okay. Thank you. Shall I just ask the other questions?

Yes, as briefly as possible.

Okay. Welsh Government often says that we have the most generous support package in Wales. We've got education maintenance allowance and all that. However, you recently stated that Welsh Government's modelling shows that it can no longer afford to increase student loan outlay at a greater rate than the UK Government. So, what assessments have you made of the impact this will have on the student support package provided to Welsh students in the future?

Well, Chair, you've set me a challenge now, because that's a very technical question to try and answer in a short amount of time. I don't know if I'm going to be in your good books if I go through all of this, but it is important.

Would it be easier if we write to you on that one, then, for an answer? Would that be easier if it's a very—. Would that be better?

Yes, and we can offer a briefing as well, because it's of such a technical nature. I'd love to sit here and go through it all and explain it for the next hour, but I know we haven't got the time.

Okay. Fantastic. If you could do that.

Can I ask a question that you can do a written response to as well? It really bothers me. So, we've got older people who might have been out of work, they want to go back into work, or they've gone down one career path but want to change. But how can they work and study at the same time? Because they still have to pay a mortgage. And when we've talked about recruitment as well, there are good people who could be great lecturers as well, but are having to study at the same time. So, if you could think of an answer and write to us with a solution, that would be really good.

I'd be very happy to do that, because that's one area where Wales is actually outperforming the rest of the UK. By the age of 30, 53 per cent of people in Wales will go to university. So, there's a lot that I would love to write to you about on that.

Thank you.

Good. Thank you. Thank you. I'm going to shoot over to Cefin, now, for question 21, please, if that's possible, because we are so, so short of time.

Yes, okay. If I could come back with a further question as well, if we've got time this morning.

Yes, if we've got time, you can definitely come back. If not, we'll write for answers.

So, given the recent example of additional funds being made available to the conservatoire, to what extent was Medr an 'arm's-length body' in this decision-making process, and is this ring-fenced funding for specific provision within the college, or is it a part of the Medr mapping exercise?

Thank you. I'm happy to answer that, and it touches on some of the conversation I had with Vaughan earlier about Medr. So, the decision to provide that funding specifically for conservatoire provision was part of an investment in culture and the arts, hence the decision for that funding to come through a different route within Government.

Medr independently reviewed a business case setting out the funding shortfall and the potential impact on the future of conservatoire provision in Wales, relating specifically, I should say, to Wales's world-leading creative industries, which we know is a key growth sector for the economy here as well. And Medr reviewed that business case and deemed it to be fair and responsible. So, the funding then came from the support for local culture and sport budget expenditure line, and that funding allocated to Medr to support conservatoire provision was largely to bring funding in line with other parts of the UK and as a response to the Murphy report as well. So, in other parts of the UK, a subject premium is applied in recognition of the additional costs of this type of teaching.

But then, to get to the heart of your question, Medr is in control of deploying the funding within the parameters set by Ministers. So, it's down to Medr to allocate the funding as it deems appropriate, and then to monitor its use as well. So, I know that the chief executive officer of Medr told the committee on 15 January that Medr's role is to determine how the funding is provided, setting the terms and conditions of both the core funding, and also the specific aspects of funding that would relate back to my portfolio area in terms of widening participation. That's really important as well.

You asked about the subject mapping exercise, as well, didn't you? So, that subject mapping exercise that I commissioned Medr to undertake, that's going to be published this month. It's not been commissioned with the purpose that I think you were perhaps suggesting there. The purpose of that mapping exercise is to help identify trends in subject delivery across Wales, including where certain subject areas might be at threat in the long term. So, Welsh Government and Medr can then consider together how and if a policy response is needed to safeguard certain subjects. So, it's not intended to be used to channel funding towards specific subjects; the mapping exercise means that we can then evaluate that report's findings, and it can add to the evidence base as well, which we're gathering through the call for submissions.

So, is the conservatoire money likely to be ongoing funding, recurring funding?

I believe it's been baselined.

Yes, it's been baselined.

Okay, fine.

Okay, thank you. We'll go to Natasha, and, hopefully, we'll make up some time so that we can go back to Cefin's extra question.

Okay, fantastic. You've previously stated that you don't want to see learners on waiting lists in FE institutions. Now, it's come to the committee's attention that ColegauCymru have stated that the Welsh Government has not allocated enough funding to avoid waiting lists at every FE institution for the next academic year. How concerned are you by this evidence that young people are sitting on waiting lists, particularly for FE, and what conversations have you specifically had with institutions about this? And what actions can you take now, in the present time, to minimise this issue for the start of the next academic year?

Thank you, Natasha. This is a really important question. I would like to start by qualifying—. I think you said waiting lists at every college. There is currently only one college with a waiting list, and I'm in close conversation with the principal there about how those learners have been directed towards other opportunities, and the youth guarantee—the young person's guarantee. But the most important thing to say here is that I and the Cabinet Secretary and the Cabinet Secretary for finance are very, very aware of the financial challenges that are facing FE colleges due to that increase in learner numbers. It's a good news story in a way, because we've seen a huge increase in applications to FE, which is what we want to see. Medr are providing an extra £34 million for colleges through the budget in total. That's what's been allocated to them. So, that's a total increase in core funding to the FE sector this academic year of 8.5 per cent. What Medr are doing now is to monitor the in-year position closely, and we will continue to provide additional funding, should it be available.

We're allocating also an additional £5 million for FE at the final budget, which, taken with the additional funding at the draft budget, means there's £26.5 million extra for Medr in 2026-27 to support the priorities in further and higher education. So that's an overall budget increase for Medr of almost 4 per cent. But, as I said, despite this additional investment, we absolutely recognise that colleges are seeing a dramatic increase in learner numbers this year, ahead of forecast. It's creating pressures on college budgets and resources in terms of capacity. But I am still in conversation with the Cabinet Secretary for finance about these ongoing pressures, and also with the sector as well.

Okay. Thank you, Chair.

Thank you. Vaughan, please.

I want to go back to the paper that you published on the future of tertiary education in Wales. Now, within that—I'm going to read it, because otherwise I'll get the title wrong—you refer to a prospectus for the strategic direction of vocational education and training in Wales, to be published this spring. Is that the same as a previous commitment for a draft vocational education and training strategy, or is it a different document? And if I could ask an additional part in the same section, vocational education and training, we talked earlier about the fact that the world of work is changing, and you made the point, I think, quite rightly, that 2030 is the end of the next Senedd term. We've already seen a massive change in the world of work in this Senedd term. And at the end of last week, the UK Government announced there will be AI training for every adult as well. So, as the world of work changes and will continue to move around, is that strategy going to try to forecast what happens? And will there be a review point to think about how those changes are taking place? And, as ever, what does 'spring 2026' mean? I've been a Minister. I understand that seasons can last longer than you think.

Thanks, Vaughan. Thanks for that question. So, what I will say is that we're going to publish the strategic direction for vocational education and training in Wales prior to the pre-election period.

Great, that's good news.

So, that puts a closer marker on that. And what it will do, then, is to reflect the conclusions of the reference group of key stakeholders that we convened to consider how best to strengthen vocational education and training in Wales. It should complement the call for submissions as well, represent the sector views, and form a key subject of the wider review of tertiary education. So, the two things are intertwined, as you would expect.

I know, in the committee's report, 'Routes into post-16 education and training', you recommended an overarching strategy for post-16 education that would encompass both academic and vocational pathways. I don't disagree with that ambition, but we do need to recognise that the outcome of the call for submissions and other evidence will provide the robust database to inform future policy decisions. And the decision on whether to publish a broad tertiary strategy or a specific VET strategy will be shaped by the outcomes of the call for submissions. The strategic direction for vocational education and training has provided a strong foundation for that work. And there's been really good cross-Government work as well on the VET board, where I sit with the Cabinet Secretary for Education, the Cabinet Secretary for economy, and the Minister for skills.

Can I just ask too? The commitment to have AI training courses available for every UK adult I think is really welcome, but how does that sit alongside, or will it be taken into account that there's this other offer that is UK funded and is available directly, so direct access to it, and what then takes place through the broader sector that you've got responsibility for, and a future Welsh Government will? Because what I want to understand is does that take place over here and it's not joined up, or will the strategy you're going to publish—or the prospectus, sorry, that you're going to publish—take account of how that will be deliberately joined up within the system so that, from the individual's point of view, it's as easy to understand and access as possible and doesn't try to create a barrier in accessing those opportunities?

Thank you. I realise I didn't answer the second part of your question. I'll try to cover both of those things. Some of the work that we have been doing on the board has been looking at how we map skills for the future, which I'm sure you'll remember from your own time in Government is one of the most challenging things to do. A lot of that needs closer work with business and economy colleagues. I think a really good template for that happened in north Wales a few weeks ago, where we had the skills summit, bringing together all the education providers and business to look at the opportunities presented by Wylfa, the artificial intelligence growth zone, floating offshore wind and the free port.

We are working on ways to gather the data that we need and to forecast those skills for the future. It's something that colleagues in economy are well versed in. But change is happening really fast and it's so important that we identify those skills needs for the future and then communicate that to young learners and to people in the workplace and outside of the workplace, so that we can really market those opportunities to them, and that provision in further education and higher education is aligned with that. I would urge the committee to watch the work of the north Wales tertiary alliance, who I feel are really blazing a trail in that regard.

Thank you. I think we've got a little bit of time now to go back to Cefin.

Thank you. My question is on the university sector. Recent Universities and Colleges Admissions Service figures show that roughly about 32 per cent of 18-year-olds have made applications to universities. That's 8.6 per cent below the UK average. For young people from disadvantaged communities making applications, we are about 6 per cent lower than comparable regions across the UK. I'm just wondering, after nearly 27 years of being in Government, what your reflections are on this situation and why we are still lagging behind other parts of the United Kingdom in terms of applications and enrolments.

Thank you. There's a lot there. I'll see how much I can get through before the Chair cuts me off. That UCAS data is really important. It is a key marker for us. I'm pleased to see that the number of placed applicants from Wales, because I think that's a very important marker, has increased.

I take your point on board about applicants from the most deprived areas of Wales, but it goes back to what the Cabinet Secretary was saying earlier about how we measure success, when she said that if you had a learner with 20 per cent attendance, then a rise to 50 per cent is a good measure of success there. We've actually seen a really good increase in the number of applicants and placed applicants from the Welsh index of multiple deprivation quintile 1. I can't remember the figure off the top of my head, but I'm happy to write to you with that.

I think this is where the investment in Medr's Reaching Wider programme is really important, with activities that really do focus on that type of learner and help them to see their potential and ambition by actually going into universities and having taster sessions. I'm actually heading to Swansea University either next week or maybe the week after to see an example of that. I might have forgotten another part of your question, so please feel free to prompt me if I have.

It was the two parts. It's the deprived communities and also the general cohort being about 8.6 per cent lower than the average.

Yes. There are a few points I will add. Firstly, to go back to the data that I referenced earlier, if you look at our success rate by the time a person in Wales reaches the age of 30, I believe it's 53 per cent go to university—and that is actually higher than other parts of the UK. The UCAS figures don't capture all of that, because a lot of students entering university after the age of 18 apply directly to universities rather than through UCAS. I think that's a really important qualifying point there. I was going to say something else, and I can't remember what it is now.

We do see good progression as well from FE into HE. And again, those figures aren't captured by UCAS. There's a lot of direct application that happens there as well. But I think that figure about the likelihood of people going to university by the time they're 30 in Wales being higher than other parts of the UK is really interesting.

Quintile 1 is 21 per cent. [Interruption.]

It sounds like the roof is just about to cave in. I do hope it isn't. Thank you for your time this morning. We really appreciate you being here. You'll be sent a transcript for checking in due course. Thank you very much.

I will now move on to item 3, which is papers to note. We have seven papers to note today, full details of which are set out in the agenda and the paper pack. Are Members content to note the papers together? I can see Members are.

Moving on to item 4, I propose, in accordance with Standing Order 17.42(ix), that the committee resolves to meet in private for the remainder of today's meeting. Are Members content? We will now meet in private.